The demand for petroleum products (LPG, Gasoline, Diesel and lubricating oil) is not going to suddenly stop. Second hand ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) cars are going to be around for a long time and they will become very very cheap as the demand for them wanes. Everyone will want an electric car but the cheapness of ICE cars will persuade many to continue to use them. And there will always be "petrol heads" who just love their ICE cars.
However, the demand for petroleum products will start to decrease and it will be a one way trend. What do "gas stations" do. They work on very small margins and large volumes and on having a monopoly on the fuel we need for transportation. It doesn't take much of a decrease in their sales to make them a stranded asset.
Clearly, if they want to continue in business, they have to become energy providers rather than petroleum providers and allow us to charge our battery cars at their facilities. They have a problem here that all sorts of other companies have realized that if they have a charging station, it will attract customers to their premises to shop while the car is being charged. Charging stations are springing up at super markets, restaurants and other businesses.
The petrol companies need other streams of revenue. A couple come to mind. Already many 'gas stations' have stores and restaurants connected to their petroleum outlets and I suspect that they make more money on these than on the sale of petroleum. Just here where I live, one gas station showed real initiative when it started to sell really large ice cream cones at cost. Suddenly their business boomed and the kids pushed Dad into stopping there to fill up.
When you are charging your car, no matter how fast 'fast charging' gets, it will always take more time than to fill up the tank of an ICE car so you have a little time on your hands. It is likely that smart gas stations will expand the goods that can be purchased at their stations.
But there is another revenue stream that could be attractive to a petrol station that is also a charging station. Mega Batteries.
If a lot of cars are charging at the same time, especially if they are all fast chargers as seems to be the trend now, it will put a huge demand on the grid. The whole grid will have to be upgraded to avoid burning out the wires at peak times. that is unless the petrol stations install a mega battery.
Let's say for the sake of the argument a petrol station installs a one mWh (mega Watt hour) battery. A typical car of the future will have, say, a 100kWh battery. A fully charged 1mWh battery could therefore charge up 10 cars without needing recharging. Batteries are now being developed based on Li that will be able to charge right to the top and be used right to the bottom without damage. Anyway,why such a large battery, Isn't it a waste putting in such a large capacity you might say.
Well no. Mega batteries by themselves are ridiculously profitable. Look at the Hornsdale example. It is rumored to have paid off its $66m(Aus) cost in three short years by buying power when it is cheap and selling it when it is expensive. Better still, for the Hornsdale site, it is part of a wind farm so they store power when it is being generated in excess of demand rather than having to feather the wind turbines.
This points up the next profit generator for the gas stations we are converting. They should install solar panels on every surface they have available. Most of them have a large roof over their petrol pumps and the roof of the adjacent building where they sell pies, ice cream, bread and milk.
A petrol company with many gas stations could become a major player in the energy supply of a country. One of our NZ petrol companies has upward of 250 stations. With a one mWh battery at each station, they become one of the largest battery operators in the world and as a bonus it is distributed storage. They become a large peaker plant and benefit from our insane spot price system.
There is also a possibility that negotiations with existing power distributors might result in less expensive power to charge the mega battery since the power distributor avoids the need to upgrade their grid to cater for a whole bunch of fast chargers all operating at the same time. The only really grunty cables that are needed are those from the mega battery to the charging points, not the whole grid.
And here is one more revenue stream generator. As ICE cars age, there is, going to be, for a while, an ever increasing demand for mechanics. The cars will be getting longer and longer in the tooth and need ever increasing maintenance. For a while, a connected garage, the way it used to be, will be a real money spinner. Mind you, at some point this will fade as electric cars take over. The smart operator will make money in this golden period and then get out of this part of the business.
It is going to be a difficult time for 'gas stations' unless they innovate and become energy stations.
