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Friday, April 17, 2020

America Going Under

If you needed to be convinced that Democracy in America is completely dysfunctional; that big corporations take precedent over the citizens, this ban on the purchase of seeds in many parts of America should convince you.

Here in New Zealand, when it was announced that we were heading into a level 4 shutdown to combat C19, all the seeds in our outlets were snapped up as people realized that they might just have to grow their own food if this pandemic continued for any length of time.  Did New Zealand declare seeds and gardening equipment non essential.  Of course not.  We have a functioning democracy.  America has an Oligarchy.

This is clearly an attempt by the big corporations through their influence on politicians to grab even more of the seed production market of America and to promote their GM and Round Up Ready seeds, many of them with a lethal gene that means that you can not save seeds.  And if that is not enough, they, in the past have taken legal action against people who have tried to save GM seeds that don't have the lethal gene.

All sorts of vested interests gain by this ban while the citizens suffer as food becomes scarce and expensive. Meat packing has also been declared non essential (unlike here in New Zealand where we are very close to eradicating C19)

Twice now, America has been given the chance to have the best president since FDR, once in 2016 and again in 2020.  He would have actually drained the swamp.  Now, regardless of who wins, they will have either a psychopathic lair or a bumbling yes man who will do what he is told. This stupidity would never have happened in a Sanders presidency.

In case you think that the GOP is the villain, well yes she is but that is what we would expect of a party of the rich and the corporations.  No surprise there.  But hopefully, America is waking up to the fact that the DNC is no better.  In fact they are worse because they give lip service to being the party of the people.

There was another small but very revealing incident fairly recently that illustrates the dysfunction of the American system.  You might remember that a free press is an important part of a democracy. (I apologize for the sarcasm).  And part of a free press is a free broadcasting system.  Radio and Television are as much part of the press as news papers and magazines.

Do you remember in 2003 one of the Dixy Chicks insulted President bush (the younger).  In the spirit of Woodstock, of course this brought them to the attention of every DJ in the country and their music was played more and more.  Great songs like the Vietnam blues.  Sing it with me.

Well it's one two three what are we fighting for
Don't ask me I don't give a dam
Next stop it's Vietnam
And it's five, six seven open up the pearly gates
Oh Lord it ain't no use in wondering why
Wopee we're all going to die.

I wish.  Not a bit of it.  The were banned across the USA and it nearly derailed their  career.  Clearly the word came down from above from the corporate bosses who are beholden to the system for their largess from the government.  What happened.  Did the government threaten them with a withholding of funds or was it just the old boys club.  Whatever the mechanism, this illustrates how much freedom of the press exists in the US of A.


 Of course the most egregious, most damaging example of a lack of press freedom in America was the almost complete shut out of Bernie Sanders from the news.  Finally America had the possibility of having the best president since FDR.  Instead they got the worse one since Bush, the younger.  America had a second chance in 2020 and she blew it again.

Let me give you one more. I know someone who worked for a major American news outlet.  He/she was not allowed to write what he/she had investigated. This reporter was told that only articles which were favorable to Trump would be published (this was early in his presidency).  This reporter quit.

Friday, April 3, 2020

Why test for Covid19 antibodies

At present we are testing for the Covid-19 virus.  Swabs of the upper respiratory track are taken and a test is done which involves multiplying up the RNA in the sample.  There are many false negatives since the virus tends to reside deeper down in the lungs so you may have the virus without it being detected.  If the virus is detected, you and your contacts can be isolated, reducing the chance of transmission to others.  But that is another story.

Here I want to examine the implications of testing for the antibodies to Covid-19.  These are the substances that the body creates to neutralize any further incursions of the virus into your body.  In other words, you are immune to at least this strain of C19 and possibly have some partial immunity to other closely related strains which may be produced by mutation of the virus.  The tests for the Antibodies are being rolled out and hopefully they will soon be widespread and affordable.  At present it is not known how long immunity will last in people who have contracted the disease.  Contracting some diseases give you immunity for life, some for a lesser period.

So what is the value of being able to test for antibodies for this disease.  In no particular order:

1.  We will now be able to get a good estimate of how many people have had the virus but were a-symptomatic.  Some present estimates are 4 to 5 a-symptomatic people for every one who gets sick.  This will allow us to determine:
  a) The true death rate from this disease
  b) Why some people are a-symptomatic.  Is it genetic, related to gut bacteria, connected with age, race, previous or present  disease profile and so forth.
  c) What the true rate of immunity in in the population.
  d) At what rate of immunity does herd immunity become effective.
  e) Who to give the vaccine to when it is available.  No use wasting it on people who have had the disease (symptomatically or a-symptomatically) and hence are already immune to it.

2.  Which people can now go back to work, look after people with the disease, be out and about rather than in lock down, shop in the super markets and so forth with no danger to themselves or to others.  Here I would make a suggestion.
     Give anyone who has tested positive for antibodies a photo ID card that they can show to the police or 'to whom it may concern' stating that they are immune.
These people can still transmit the disease just as any surface can but they are not factories spewing out massive numbers of viruses into their environment.  They can start to get us up and running as early as possible.  Even before the test for antibodies becomes readily available, people that have had the disease and are not OK can be issued such a photo ID card.


3.  When a vaccine is rolled out, over time we will be able to see the relative effectiveness of having had the vaccine or having had the disease. For some diseases a better, longer lasting immunity comes from having had the disease.


Sadly the countries that have been slackest in controlling  the spread of the virus will be the countries that can get up and running first.  They will develop herd immunity earlier and the virus will die out in their countries.  On the negative side, the cost of their poor response to the virus will be the death of many of their citizens who didn't have to die.