Iran's nuclear ambitions

 

As of the middle of 2025 with the military hit that Iran took on her military and nuclear capacity, it is interesting to look at some of the details of nuclear bombs and what Iran intends to do with them.  My underlying premise for this blog is that if a dictator or would be dictator says he is going to do something and it is a bad thing, we should take their word for it and act accordingly.  Hitler's Mein Kampf was the classical example.  He laid out what he intended and did his best to carry it out.  If, on the other hand a dictator say that he is going to do something good, wait and see.  It is likely that he is trying to disarm your suspicions and to buy  time to do the bad thing. 

Let's look first at some nuclear technology.  

Uranium consists of two isotopes.  U235 and U238.  The difference is how many neutrons it has in its nucleus.  Of course  both have the same number of protons.  An atom with a different number of protons would be a different element.

Many elements have different varieties(Isotopes) and some of them are radioactive.  This means that they break down into other elements, giving out particles (neutrons, protons, electrons, helium nuclei) and radiation in the form of very high energy electomagnetic gama rays. 

The heaviest ones are not necessarily the most unstable.  There are 'sweet spots' in which a certain number of neutrons and  protons are stable and others are less stable.  Uranium is a case in point.  The half life of U235 is 703million years while the half life of U238 is 4.5billion years,  6,400 times as long. That is why there is more U238 in a sample of natural Uranium than U235. 

If you want to run a nuclear power plant or make a nuclear bomb, you must concentrate the U235.  For a power station, you need U which is between 3 and 5% U235.

 

You can separate out the U235 from the U238 in a couple of ways.  Both depend on first turning the U into a gas by reacting it with F (fluorine).  The U238 gas is slightly heavier than the U235 gas.  Then you can run it through pipes with barriers containing tiny holes.  The U235 gas diffuses more readily through these battiers and is slightly enriched.  You use cascades of these to enrich the gas more and more.  The other way is to use ultra-centrifuges.  This does basically the same thing and you use cascades of these also.

A bomb can be made from Uranium with as little as 20% U 235 but the richer it is, the less of it you need for a bomb.  Roughly speaking you need 50kg of U235 so if your Uranium was only 20% U235,you would need 5 times as much (250kg) than if you had highly enriched Uranium.

In a power plant, the U238 is bombarded with neutrons which they capture in their nucleus and through a couple of radioactive disintegrations,  in which one of the neutrons gives out an electrons and turns into a proton, Pu 239 is produced.  You can make a bomb from U239 and only need under 10kg of Pu239.  The half life of Pu239 is just over 24,000 years.

Incidentally, the shorter the half life of an isotope, the more radioactive and hence the more dangerous it is but the quicker it disappears if produced in a pile or bomb.  This is not altogether true as it also depends on which sort of radiation it emits and its biological interaction with organisms.

Making a bomb like the first one dropped on Hiroshima is child's play for an engineer.  You use the rapid assembly method in which half the needed nuclear material to make a critical mass, in the form of a cannon ball, is fired into the other half in the form of a 'catchers mitt'.   This first bomb use highly enriched Uranium with some as much as 89% and some of it 50%.  It used a total of 64kg of Uranium.

The second bomb dropped on Japan used Plutonium, which was produced in the nuclear pile that the scientists were running.  It only used 6.4kg of Pu.  It used the compression method in which shaped charges of conventional explosives all go off at the same time, compressing a sphere of Plutonium.  It is much more sophisticated to build but not a problem for a society in which there are explosive experts.  The Plutonium is purified from the waste nuclear material from a civilian power plant.

In light of all the above let's look at Iran.  She only needs Uranium which is enriched to between 3 and 5% for her power plant.  So why has she, reportedly, already enriched to 60%.  Duhhhhh!!  She doesn't need to go to 90% as has often been indicated in various reports.  If she has saved any of the 60% Uranium from the military hits, she might need, say, 90kg of this material to make a bomb.  Does anyone doubt that a regime that perpetrated Oct7 would shy away from using it on Israel (the little devil) and Europe and America (the big devils).  As for delivery mechanisms, a rocket is possible but I can think of a whole raft of other ways of delivering a nuke to anywhere you want.   

 

In addition, as I said, Iran has a civilian (yehh right!!)  power plant.  This power plant is making Pu as we speak.  Iran must never be allowed to refine this waste.  You need much less Pu than U to make a bomb.  

 

It would appear that Israel and the USA only just struck Iran in time.  In fact at the last possible moment.  And the danger is not over.  To anyone in the rest of the Middle East, in the Far East, in Europe, in Asia or the Americas that thinks this is over, think again.

Democracy

 The Greeks started the idea and modern society improved on it.  It is the best guard against the collapse of societies.  It is called Democracy and its main purpose is to throw the rascals out before they become too attached to their seats.  

 

The further we stray from 'one man one vote', the greater the chance of collapse.  America is straying further and further from Democracy with her denial of voting registration, obstruction of voting, reduced voting stations, location of the remaining few voting stations in 'favorable locations', gerrymandering and the ridiculous delegate system.

  

She augments the rot by a)allowing vested interests to buy politicians by financing their elections, b)making them rich while in office and c)giving them 'sweet jobs' when they leave office.  Trump almost trashed the most important, totally vital aspect of Democracy which is the peaceful transition of power following an election. This is the last aspect of democracy that still exists in America.

 

Look at 'Mickey Mouse' states around the world.  They never have a peaceful transition of power.  And there is a  fear is that the  rot could spread to other countries which at present are Democratic.  Potential despots exist in all societies and memes - both good and bad, spread.  If tRUMP and tRUMPISM  (sorry, my cap lock got stuck)* is not defeated in America, the example will spread to other countries and we will sink into a very ugly world. 

*tRUMP did announce that world leaders were lining up to kiss his rump.

 

If Trump and the Republican party succeeds, other so called right wing parties around the world  will be taking heart and trying it on for size.  If Trump is jailed for a good long time and the American election system is reformed, this will also provide an salutary example for other would be despots.

 

If the Democrats get in, in the November elections*, they will have the chance to reform the system.  This will be their one and only chance.  If they don't codify reforms in law, the Trumpists will be elected in some future election and will destroy America and the small remnants of democracy that she still has.  It could be just enough to save America from becoming a kleptocratic dictatorship by Oligarchs.

 

Jan1, 2025 - clearly Trump won the election# and the only hope now is that it will be so bad under his administration that people will finally wake up, elect a huge Democratic majority in the mid terms, and demand true democratic reform. Perhaps the situation must get so bad that  the abysmally  ignorant half  of the American public will finally wake up.  I doubt it.  I have almost unlimited faith in the mind numbing  ignorance of  vast swathes of the American public.

 

#Or did he.  I have seen an analysis that the election was won by an egregious level of discarding votes on the most spurious of reasons by partizan election officials.  This analysis showed that there was a high probability that Harris actually won the election.  Perhaps there is a silver lining in all this - an unexpected consequence that acts in our favor.  If Harris had won, it would have been by a small majority.  Certain aspects of American policy require a super majority to change.  A simple majority is not enough.  Perhaps it will be so bad% under Trump that the Democrats will get the needed super majority needed to reform the system.

 

%Bloody hell!!  As of the first of May, the first 100 days of Trump's presidency has been so bad that I couldn't have even imagined in my worst nightmare that he could have been this bad without all the Republicans rising up against him.  He latest action has been to invoke marshal law along a strip of land next to the Mexican border.  Any American who sets foot in this area can be arrested by the military.

 

So what measures must be taken.

 

1.  First and most important all financial connection between members of the government and people who finance them must be severed.  We think we are gaining some sort of benefit by someone else paying for the election of our president, Senators and Representatives but it is costing us vast amounts in ways both obvious and  subtle. 

If we want our government to serve us and not to serve the Oligarchs, we must pay for their elections from the exchequer.  https://mtkass.blogspot.com/2018/01/wasted-effort.html  This must include stopping the various ways of making our elected officials rich while in office and giving them 'sweet jobs' when they leave office.

 

As long as the present system of financing elections, making Senators and Representatives rich while in office and giving them sweet jobs when they leaver office, politics will attract the wrong sort of people to the job, especially to the Republican party.

 

2.  The delegate system must be scrapped.  It simply results in more layers of corruption. We could say it was a noble experiment but the delegate system degraded democracy rather than making it stronger.   The basic requirement of Democracy is one man one vote.  The popular vote must be what elects all elected officials. THE FURTHER A SOCIETY STRAYS FROM ONE MAN ONE VOTE, THE MORE VULNERABLE SHE IS TO COLLAPSE

 

3.  A set of principles, codified in law, must be developed to determine voting districts.  This disgraceful gerrymandering must be stopped.  It will be very difficult to achieve such a system and it is unlikely to be perfect but it can be much closer to the ideal than it is at present.  The basic criteria to aim for is that the vote of every citizen has equal weight in electing government officials.

 

4.  Vastly more polling stations must be set up and specifically set up in less privileged areas.  It is now somewhere between difficult and impossible for many Americans to get to a polling station.

 

5.  If someone is waiting in line to vote before the official close of the voting station, they must be allowed to vote even if the polling station has to stay open all night.  Using delaying tactics to keep people from voting and then refusing to let them vote is not democratic.  With vastly more polling stations this problem will disappear.

 

6.  Voting must take place on an existing public holiday or a public holiday must be declared for voting.

 

7.  Mail-in ballots must be allowed for overseas service men, for people in remote areas, for overseas tourists and for overseas government employees.  Alternately, polling stations must be set up for these folks.  Just look at his effort by a Republican state government to disenfranchise voters.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HfXI4d1byk&t=825s

8. Denial of registration must be stopped.  If you can show a birth certificate, naturalization papers, passport  or any other photo ID document that shows you are a citizen, you must be registered.

 

9.  We must go back to paper ballots.  Electronic voting in this modern age allows too many opportunities for the 'tech Bros' to hack the system and warp it to their own interests.  Look who supported Trump.  The main oligarchs who supported Trump are very computer savvy and have teams of expert hackers in their employee.  Remember how tRUMP said "don't bother to vote.  I already have all the votes I need".  What do you think he meant by this?  Duhhhh!!!

This may be the last chance that the Democrats have to bring democracy to America.  If they fail, we are going to experience a very nasty world.

Post Script Monday, May 12 2025

Trump's economically stupid measures have now driven the American airplane manufacturer, Boing, to threaten to close her factory in Seattle and move elsewhere.  I would suggest to their CEO (who incidentally supported the election of Trump!!!!) that he should up-stakes and move to British Columbia.  A lot of his people would love to move with him and physically, BC is much like the Pacific North West of the USA but nicer.  The stability of the Canadian economy is far better.  Here we see the effect of autocracy on business.  Business only really thrives under a liberal democracy.  There are so many examples of autocracies which are economic basket cases around the world that I am surprised that a presumably, very intelligent man such as the CEO of Boeing couldn't predict what would happen.  Perhaps these tech folks need a few more courses in world history and in civics.

Ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny

 Ontogeny recapitulates Phylogeny

There is a wealth of information concealed in those three little words.

Ontogeny is the development of an individual animal from a fertilized egg and on to the birth of that individual.

Phylogeny is the evolution of life from single cells which floated around in the oceans up to the animals we see around us today including ourselves.  Many of you will have come upon this concept in courses in embryology.

If we look at the early stages of a human fetus, for instance, at a certain point we see wee gill slits on the neck, at a later stage we see a wee tail, both of which are later absorbed and disappear before birth.   At least usually they do.  Occasionally an individual is born in which you can just see the trace of gills and occasionally with a wee vestigial tail.

It is interesting how this occurs.  Take as an example a species of monkey that lives in the tree tops of the jungle.  They have developed a prehensile tail which is of great help keeping them from falling to the jungle floor where they might damage themselves and where there are a range of animals that would look very favorably on monkey for breakfast.  

 

Occasionally in certain individuals, mutations occur which make their tails less effective or in an extreme case that they have no tail at all.  One way this can happen is if the gene that initiates the sequence that leads to the development of a tail, does not switch on because of some mutation.  This sort of monkey is much more likely to fall.  We usually think of natural selection developing new valuable chracteristics which help an animal exploit new environments but natural selection has much more to do with keeping and animal which has evolved to exploit a certain environment, unchanged.

Look at another example.  Take the Wolf and the Dog.  Wolves have remained pretty much the same for a few hundred of thousands of years.  They are well adapted to their wild environment and the vast majority of mutations would make them more poorly adapted to their environment.  However look at the dog.  Under the influence of the humans who feed and care for wolves and who select some of these mutations because they are valuable for humans or  just from some misguided fancy, dogs have radiated in a huge number of different forms, which based on their appearance would be considered different species if we didn't know that all can breed with each other.

So let's go back to the jungle monkey.  It is getting crowded in the jungle and some of them have to venture out into the surrounding plains to make a living.  A group evolved that make a pretty good go at plains living.  A tail is of much less value to them. In fact it costs them resources for them to grow this useless appendage. Some of them get a mutation that reduces the ability of the tail to grasp a branch,  In fact some of them have a mutation to the gene that initiates the growth of a tail such that  they are born without one.  Since they don't need the tail now, there is no selective pressure against not having a prehensile tail.  But here is the rub.

The longer they are on the plains, the more mutations they accumulate in the sequence that produces a tail.  The occurs even in monkeys that have the switch at the beginning of the tail sequence shut down.  Now if the switch gene gets another mutation that turns on the tail growing sequence, the tail that the animal will grow will be a sorry imitation of the original magnificent tail.  Hence the very rare occurrence of a wee tail in a newly born human.  (also remnant gills).

Geneticists believe from the evidence, that we shed our tails suddenly rather than over a long period so this points to some gene that started a sequence, being shut off suddenly.

An open letter to Kamala

Hi Kamala

You have to win the coming election in 2024 or we are finished, not only in America but the effects on the rest of the world will be disastrous.  However I believe that you will win with a good majority in both houses.  This letter is predicated on you winning.  

 

I have heard you say that you will support Israel against her enemies and I hope this help is full and unconditional.  All sorts of people and groups are calling for a cease fire and they are either ignorant or willfully against Israel.  I'd like to present a few facts for your consideration.

 

Israel has never initiated a war or terrorist acts against any other nation or group.  She has only retaliated when attacked.

 

The Moslem nations and organizations have, again and again initiated war and terrorist acts against Israel, against each other and even against their own citizens. 

 

But here is the crux of the matter.  Any chance of a lasting peace, in the Middle east  depends on Israel weakening or destroying the terrorists and this includes the Theocrats of Iran who are holding their own people in thrall.  There are two reasons for this.

Firstly, the people of most of the surrounding Moslem countries are being oppressed by these monsters.  They deserve a better form of government and it just may be possible, if the Terrorists are weakened sufficiently, the people can rise up against them and create a better form of government and hence a better life for themselves.

Do you realize that a few decades ago, before she was taken over by religious extremists, Lebanon was called the Paris of the Middle East.  My mother in law was a stewardess with British Airways and she tells us of what a wonderful place it was.

In addition, again, a few decades ago under the Shaw, the Jews and the Persians were great friends.  Once again this was before the Theocrats took over Iran.  

The second reason that lasting peace in the Middle East depends on the destruction of the Terrorists is that all the countries that were about to sign the Abraham Accords are watching.  If they see that Israel has the will and the staying power to deal a decisive blow to the terrorist organizations (which are more of a danger to these Moslem countries than to Israel) they will sign up.  If Israel is forced to sign a cease fire, allowing the Terrorists to rise again, they will not sign up.

Some years ago, I didn't think that it would be possible for Israel to have anything like a normal relationship with any Arab country but look at Egypt and Jordan.  It is possible for Israel and Arab nations to get along.

Kamala, the worst thing you could do is to use the considerable influence of the USA to make Israel sign up to a cease fire before they finish the job.  It will only lead to more and more conflict in the future.  As it is, there is finally a reasonable chance of peace in the Middle East for the two reasons I mentioned above.  However if you don't win the coming election, all bets are off.  I really can't understand the half of your population that would vote for a criminal, sexual predator con man instead of yourself.  You have carried out a great campaign and deserve to be the next president of the USA

Written on the  9th of October.

The call for an end of the war and for a two state solution

 

 Just looking at the war in the Middle East, as a casual observer, as most people do, anyone would call for a cease fire for the poor poor people of Gaza and Lebanon that nasty old Israel has no regard for.   Anyone would ask for a state for the Palestinians so these poor people could live in peace and harmony with their Arab neighbors and with Israel.  Sadly the reality precludes such a solution.  Let me put down some bullet points for you.  You probably don't follow the situation in the Middle East as and anyway it is not your fight and you have other things to think about.  You could read these out to any of your friends that are up in arms about Israel.  Pretty well any of these points can be confirmed by a simple google search.

 

1/  Israel has never, not once, not ever started a fight with any of her neighbors.

 

 

 

2/ Arab countries and their proxies (terrorist organizations) have attacked Israel again and again and again (how many again's would you like)

 

 

3/ The Arabs have been offered a two state solution at least 5 times, the first time in 1948 and have rejected it each time.  Presidents of the USA have wasted great tranches of time working on this only to have it rejected by the Arabs.

 

 

4/ Then finally in 2005, Israel decided to create a two state solution unilaterally.  She pulled out of Gaza  and said to the Arabs, administer yourselves.  Vast amounts of money were poured into Gaza from Arab and Western countries and water and electricity was provided from Israel.  This should have made every citizen of Gaza rich.  I assume you have at least enough knowledge about what she did with this wealth that I don't have to detail what it was used for.

 

 

5/ The terrorists, Namely, Hamas in Gaza, Hisbollah in Lebanon, The Revolutionary Guard in Iran, the Hooties in Yemin, Isis in Iraq, are a far greater problem for the people of each of these countries than they are for Israel.  They have their boots on the necks of their people and treat them abysmally up to and including murder not only if any dissenter but also their families.

 

6/ The same terrorists are a threat to every regime in the Middle East.  The kleptocratic Theocracy of Iran has taken over Iran and wants to take over these neighboring countries.  They are often oil rich nations so they pay the terrorists to leave them alone.  This money comes back to Israel in the form of rockets.

 

 

7/ Many of the Arab countries have realized that Iran under her present regime is a threat to all of them. They are watching this war closely.  If Israel has the staying power and the ability to wipe out the terrorists, they will sign the Abraham Accords.  If she doesn't, they won't.  If they do, countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others will have relationships with Israel similar to the relationships with Egypt and Jordan.  To put it bluntly, the road to peace lied through the destruction of these terrorist organizations.

 

 

8/ There are very positive signs that the Lebanese government (such as it is) and people from all over the Middle East are rising up against the terrorist organizations as they are made weaker and weaker by Israel.

 

 

9/  Of course there is the often made point that the terrorist organizations make it a policy to put their bunkers and weapon stores under UN facilities and hospitals.  It is clear what the results will be.

 

 

10/  And finally, in my opinion (the above points are simple, easily confirmed facts) one would have to be gullible to the point of being a simpleton, to believe any of the mortality figures coming out of Gaza. Do you really think that an organization that promulgated Oct7, would shy away from inflating mortality figures when they depend on the 'useful idiots' of the west to stop Israel from destroying them.

 

 

 If you even listen to the news occasionally, you may well have heard of the Two State Solution. Since the Israelis already have a state and the Palestinians don't, just the phrase 'two state solution' implies that somehow the Israelis have been blocking the Palestinians from getting a sovereign state.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  The first time Palestinian Arabs were offered a state was in 1948 when the UN declared the land that was owned by Jews as a state and the most recent was in 2005 when Israel unilaterally pulled out of Gaza and left it to the administration of the Arabs that remained there.  The only time a two state solution came about, was in 2005 and it was forced on the Palestinians.

It was most disappointing that  in Sept. 2024 that so many nations at the UN called for the cessation of the war in the Middle East.

 

It seems like a great move on the face of it.  After all, who wants a war to continue.  That is until you realize the true nature of the conflict.  All that is necessary to stop the war is for Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis to stop firing rockets at, and carrying on terrorist acts against Israel, return the civilian hostages that they kidnapped, and the war will be over in that hour.  In contrast if Israel stopped her military action against the terrorists, they would continue to carry on just as they have been doing for years, firing rockets at the civilian population of Israel and carrying out various terrorist acts.  The phrase 'from the river to the sea' should be enough  to cause  anyone to realize the truth.  The river is the Jordan, the sea, the Mediterranean.  It is a call for the genocide of the people of Israel.  

 

 

Incidentally, if the Moslems ever succeed in conquering Israel, the Arab state they create would rapidly slide into the same sort of kleptocratic theocracy that is found in all the surrounding states. Women and all minorities in the new state would be persecuted and would loose all their human rights that we, in the west, take as our god given right.

Of most importance, the two state solution has been tried and failed.  Israel did it unilaterally in 2005 when she pulled out of Gaza, lock, stock and barrel and left the Arabs to manage their own affairs.  If the Arabs had used the immense amount of wealth they were given to develop, instead of arming Gaza, it would now be the Beirut of the Middle East (Before Iran and her terrorist proxies took it over, Beirut was known as the Paris, and the pearl, of the Middle East) 

Israel is accused of apartheid, most recently by Ramaposa of South Africa.  Whatever you think about Israel, it certainly does not practice apartheid.  Jews of all persuasions, Christians, Bedouins and, yes, Moslem Arabs all have the same rights in Israel and something over a third of the population of Israel are Arabs.  And all are represented in the parliament (Knesset) in proportion to their population.  For heaven sake, a Moslem judge recently sent a corrupt Jewish member of the government to jail for his crimes.  By contrast, in Arab countries, all minorities, even including fellow Arabs of a different sect are heavily discriminated against.  There are no Jews in Arab countries.  All have been expelled.  Every Arab state has conducted 'Ethnic cleansing'  (and a bit of attempted genocide).  The only state in the Middle East where Arabs have the rights, we in the west consider our birth right, is in Israel.

 

Israel has also been accused of genocide by some equally ignorant folks.  When you look at the increase of the Arab population of Israel from its inception in 1948 to the present??? show me where there is genocide.  Quite to the contrary.  Other countries in the Middle East have tried to commit genocide against the Armenians (Turks 1915-1916), the Kurds (Turks 1930 and Iraq 1988), the Yazides (Iraq 2014) and of course Jews again and again. I could go on but you get the picture.

 

The nations of the world should stop pussy footing around the subject and say it the way it is. Call for the terrorist organizations to cease fire, for Iran to stop financing them and to return the Israeli civilians back home.

  

Incidentally, if you think the ambitions of the religious fanatics who lead the Arab states ends with Israel, think again.  You only have to look at the UK with the Moslems they  have so easily let in.  The immigrants are calling for the establishment of Sharia law which would be the end of all the freedoms the common people have won in the UK over the centuries, with blood sweat and tears.  If the UK doesn't smarten up, she is going to be a very different place in a few years and it won't be pretty.  Other European countries are getting so fed up with their Arab immigrants that they are talking about sending them back to where they came from.