As this pandemic spreads through the world there will be some somewhat contrary, unexpected consequences. Once a vaccine is developed and widely available, the whole situation changes but just now we see a situation in which some countries, notably, New Zealand, have put measures in place that may well stop the virus in it's tracks while others, notably Italy, have not. In Italy, the virus has got away from them.
You may remember reports on a previous pandemic. I refer to the black death in Europe. Before it killed massive numbers of the population, the serfs were completely under the thumb of their feudal lords. They had no where else to go. Following the multiple waves of this disease through the population, the remaining serfs could sell their labor to the highest bidder and it was the beginning of the end for feudalism and the beginning of the rise of the 'common man'.
So what can we expect in countries like Italy where the virus has got away from them First there will be a lot of death, skewed heavily toward the elderly and to people with existing medical conditions, and especially, but not confined to people with respiratory problems. So what will this do to the health service. Initially it will be overwhelmed. There will never be enough beds or equipment to take care of the huge pulse of sick people and many will die. Those that survive will most likely be immune to this virus and likely for a considerable time, perhaps for the rest of their life. They will likely also have some degree of cross immunity for any mutations of this same virus. Two results seem obvious.
First you are creating a large number of people rather rapidly who can go back to work, can take care of sick family members and can even work in isolation facilities with no danger to themselves or to others*. There will be a lot of deaths, although not at any where near the rate of the black death and mainly among the elderly and otherwise medically compromised people. This brings us to the second consequence
*It would be useful to issue a plastic card like a credit card or drivers license to people who have tested positive for antibodies and negative for the virus. In other words, people who are now immune to the virus. They can be allowed to circulate and associate with the healthy and the sick with no danger to themselves or to others.
At the end of the spread of the disease, the government will have decreased health and pension costs. Many sick people who needed more care than members of the general public are gone as are many pensioners. It is a hard reality that the exchequer will be in better shape. And this brings us to the third consequence.
Countries that reacted poorly to the virus and didn't stop it spreading will recover far more quickly than countries that stopped it in it's tracks. Their businesses and especially tourist businesses and others in which the workers come in contact with large numbers of people can be up and running very quickly Of course all this changes when an effective vaccine is widely available. With an effective vaccine the whole country can rapidly return to business as usual. This brings us to the fourth consequence.
A country which has been slack in it's treatment of the disease will start to develop herd immunity which will slow down the further spread of the disease. A country that has stopped the spread of the virus will be vulnerable to new explosions of the virus until a vaccine is available and widely rolled out.
In addition, with all the death, not all of it confined to the sick and elderly, there will be upward mobility for the survivors. The whole dynamics in businesses, governments and other organizations may change, sometimes for the better as some dead wood is got rid of and sometime for the worse as critical people die.
But, in all this, what is a government to do. It can't present the above scenario to the people and say as a country we will be better off if we simply let the disease take it's course but a lot of you will die. No government could, in good conscience do such a thing . And besides, once a vaccine is readily available, the whole situation changes --- Until the next pandemic appears.
And, the more we can slow down the spread of the virus, the less people will be sick at any one time. This is what they mean when they talk about flattening the curve. This means that it will be possible to care for the sick more intensively and save lives.
But, sadly, it is still very likely that countries that have allowed the virus to spread will be up and running sooner than countries that have looked after their citizens.
You may remember reports on a previous pandemic. I refer to the black death in Europe. Before it killed massive numbers of the population, the serfs were completely under the thumb of their feudal lords. They had no where else to go. Following the multiple waves of this disease through the population, the remaining serfs could sell their labor to the highest bidder and it was the beginning of the end for feudalism and the beginning of the rise of the 'common man'.
So what can we expect in countries like Italy where the virus has got away from them First there will be a lot of death, skewed heavily toward the elderly and to people with existing medical conditions, and especially, but not confined to people with respiratory problems. So what will this do to the health service. Initially it will be overwhelmed. There will never be enough beds or equipment to take care of the huge pulse of sick people and many will die. Those that survive will most likely be immune to this virus and likely for a considerable time, perhaps for the rest of their life. They will likely also have some degree of cross immunity for any mutations of this same virus. Two results seem obvious.
First you are creating a large number of people rather rapidly who can go back to work, can take care of sick family members and can even work in isolation facilities with no danger to themselves or to others*. There will be a lot of deaths, although not at any where near the rate of the black death and mainly among the elderly and otherwise medically compromised people. This brings us to the second consequence
*It would be useful to issue a plastic card like a credit card or drivers license to people who have tested positive for antibodies and negative for the virus. In other words, people who are now immune to the virus. They can be allowed to circulate and associate with the healthy and the sick with no danger to themselves or to others.
At the end of the spread of the disease, the government will have decreased health and pension costs. Many sick people who needed more care than members of the general public are gone as are many pensioners. It is a hard reality that the exchequer will be in better shape. And this brings us to the third consequence.
Countries that reacted poorly to the virus and didn't stop it spreading will recover far more quickly than countries that stopped it in it's tracks. Their businesses and especially tourist businesses and others in which the workers come in contact with large numbers of people can be up and running very quickly Of course all this changes when an effective vaccine is widely available. With an effective vaccine the whole country can rapidly return to business as usual. This brings us to the fourth consequence.
A country which has been slack in it's treatment of the disease will start to develop herd immunity which will slow down the further spread of the disease. A country that has stopped the spread of the virus will be vulnerable to new explosions of the virus until a vaccine is available and widely rolled out.
In addition, with all the death, not all of it confined to the sick and elderly, there will be upward mobility for the survivors. The whole dynamics in businesses, governments and other organizations may change, sometimes for the better as some dead wood is got rid of and sometime for the worse as critical people die.
But, in all this, what is a government to do. It can't present the above scenario to the people and say as a country we will be better off if we simply let the disease take it's course but a lot of you will die. No government could, in good conscience do such a thing . And besides, once a vaccine is readily available, the whole situation changes --- Until the next pandemic appears.
And, the more we can slow down the spread of the virus, the less people will be sick at any one time. This is what they mean when they talk about flattening the curve. This means that it will be possible to care for the sick more intensively and save lives.
But, sadly, it is still very likely that countries that have allowed the virus to spread will be up and running sooner than countries that have looked after their citizens.
1 comment:
reading the following :
“They gasp if they walk a bit more quickly,” Owen Tsang, medical director of the HKHA’s Infectious Disease Center, said in a press conference. “Some patients might have around a drop of 20 to 30 percent in lung function.”
makes me think, and what if the CORVID is just a start of wave, where after it passes we will catch lung disease easier , meaning that instead of getting resilient population, we will get defected population, which is easier to get sick ?
how will that change these predictions ?
Post a Comment