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Showing posts with label KiwiSaver Superannuation Retirement. Show all posts
Showing posts with label KiwiSaver Superannuation Retirement. Show all posts

Saturday, October 8, 2011

New Zealand Going Under

America has finally woken up. (funny way to start a blog on New Zealand).  As of early October, 2011 she is talking about bringing back manufacturing from overseas and providing jobs for Americans.  This has nothing to do with virtue amongst the American Corporatocracy.  They haven't finally started to think about the good of the country that spawned and nurtures them.  They haven't suddenly put the good of their fellow citizens above their own highly inflated salaries and bonuses*.  No, the reason is far more prosaic although I'm sure they will try to claim the moral high ground.  The truth is that the Chinese Yuan is beginning to rise with much more 'up' inevitable in the near future and the wages of Chinese workers are rising, by latest reports, at about 15% per year.  American firms see the writing on the wall.

*Their latest ploy is to join with a small country overseas and, while staying in America physically, pay taxes overseas. Have a look at one of Elizabeth Warren's Youtubes to see a full description.

By the by, did you ever wonder what happened to that fabulous dream we had a few decades ago that we would all soon be working 30 hour weeks with 5 week annual vacations plus all the other holidays throughout the year.  What happened to the story that with automation, fabulous goods would become less and less expensive and we would all be living in the lap of luxury.  Well to some extent it came true.  Look at this fabulous invention, for instance, thanks  to Steve Jobs, that you are using to read this blog.  Look how the price has come down from it's first inception.  However, the futurists, as they usually do, forgot one part of the puzzle.  You have to have a job in order to buy things.  In a perverse way, some of us have lots of free time.  We are on welfare.  As long as our needs are modest and we have somewhere to live, all our time is our own.  If we can earn a little money under the radar we are 'sweet'.  Not a pretty picture.  But this is supposed to be a blog about New Zealand.

New Zealand is just as prone to corporate greed and government short sightedness as any country in the world.  We are always decrying our low productivity, complaining about the lack of jobs and even more so, about the lack of worthwhile jobs.  Our diaspora is somewhere around a million of our best and brightest and most enterprising people.  We wonder why our young and not so young people search for a better life overseas.  Lets look at how we are operating New Zealand Inc. and how we could operate.

Our Lumber Industry
New Zealand has the basis of a great lumber industry.  We have slightly more land than the UK and a population of 4.3 million (UK - 62m) so we have lots of land on which to plant trees............ and we have   lots of trees planted.  Our main species is the Monterrey Pine, Pinus radiata and with our fabulous growing conditions, the cycle is from 17 to 25 years.  You should see the growth rings on  our pine logs.  They are typically  a cm or two wide.  We plant them, prune them (lifts) to ensure clear, value added wood and replant as soon as the trees are cut.

 Then we send raw logs overseas!!!  Our lumber mills have closed in droves.  In the mean time, Canada is undergoing a boom in value added timber products.  Question:-Where does she sell her ply wood, milled timber and even fully made up struts?   Answer:-  To the same markets where we send our raw logs!!!   How come Canada can get it right and we can't.

Mean time, our lumber mill workers are either packing super market shelves or leaving for Australia and points North.  A skilled lumber mill worker will have a productivity, measured as the value of what he produces divided by the hours he works.  Lets call his productivity 'X'.  When he changes jobs and starts to pack super market shelves, his productivity will drop to 0.1X.  If he goes on welfare his productivity is minus 0.1X.  No wonder our productivity stats are low.  We are trashing all the high productivity  jobs.  No wonder our tax take is down.

Could this trashing of one of our primary industries be due to the nature of our much vaunted free trade agreement.  Note that when China felt herself in danger of not having enough Rare Earth Metals, her free trade agreement didn't stop her from curtailing their sale*.

* If you think this is an exaggeration, let's send a trade delegation to China to buy their REM concentrate.  We will refine it here and sell, either the refined metals or the electronic equipment made from these Rare Earth Metals. Since we have the inside track, overseas companies will be pushing and shoving to set up here in New Zealand.  Any idea what China will say when we invoke the Free Trade Agreement in order to buy her REM concentrate. I'm sure she will put it very politely.

We have just had a disastrous earthquake.  This could be and element of our salvation with respect to the lumber industry.  Let's put a major research effort into the building of wooden buildings from composite wood-epoxy beams which laugh at earthquakes.  Then let's export made up beams and other wooden building materials to other earthquake areas.  Let's not export the technology.  That is a short term gain for a long term loss.

Our Fishing Industry
Our fishing industry is another example.  We allow foreign fishing boats to fish our waters.  They must land their fish in New Zealand (at least we got that right)**.  Recently there has been a great bro ha ha (sp?) about the terrible conditions of Indonesian fishermen on Korean boats that are doing our fishing for us.  As usual we are looking at the right hand while the left hand does the trick.  Why do we allow foreign fishing boats anywhere near our fish stocks.  Does anyone think that these Korean paragons of virtue will treat our fishing stocks better than they treat their Indonesian fishermen***.  In the mean time, our people are out of work.  Out of work, on welfare, not paying taxes, not shopping at local businesses (who therefore pay less taxes) and ultimately looking for work overseas.  Once again, the same story as with our lumber industry.  People out of work, negatively productive, fleeing New Zealand, breaking up families and not paying taxes.  No wonder we have to borrow money.  We have to borrow to make up for the lost tax take and to pay welfare to the out-of-work Kiwis.

*Incidentally, much of our fishing industry is owned and operated by Iwi (Maori Tribes).  Here we have the unedifying sight of Maori bosses putting their own people out of work so that they can get higher salaries and bonuses and so that the Iwi can make larger profits. The bosses then get mana by passing on a dribble of this larges to their members.  Maori were given large concessions to fish our marine waters.  They sell these concessions to companies who aggregate them into worthwhile bundles and sell them on to foreign fishing companies.  One of the reasons for giving these concessions to the Maori was so that they would employ Maori in the fishing industry.

** I got that one wrong.  It has now been revealed that much of our fish is processed overseas.

***This same boat was later found to have dumped a hold full of our fish in order to have room for a more valuable catch she made.
  
12 June 2017  I just learned that one of our salmon farm businesses, King Salmon is Malaysian owned by a company with very a very questionable record on human rights and sustainable fisheries practices.
   

Fisheries policy - let's change tacks.
Whale Poo

Rolling Stock Manufacture
We are going back into rail and Electrified rail at that. GREAT MOVE.  We have seen what is rolling down the turnpike at our stalled car (Kiwi Inc.) and have made a very sensible decision.  Then we go and buy our rolling stock overseas despite having a local industry that is perfectly capable of manufacturing them!!!  Are we nuts*.  See:
cost-of-manufacturing-overseas

* Incidentally, a news item on National Radio sometime in Sept 2012, following the closure of yet another industry, suggested that for every  job lost in a primary industry, another 4 ancillary jobs are lost.  I have no idea if the 4:1 ratio is in the ball park but the principle is sound.  Imagine how many jobs would be created, just by producing our own rolling stock in New Zealand, not to mention all the other industries mentioned (and not mentioned) in this blog.Imagine how many spin off industries would result from us having to upgrade our manufacturing capacity to build these modern rail cars and engines.

Sale of our Land
We are at the beginning of a boom in agricultural markets overseas as other countries continue to grow their GDP, Increase their middle class,* trash their environment mine their water and send their soils downstream to the sea.  The way the world population is growing and, far more important, the way they are increasing their "standard of living", the future for an agricultural country is bright.  Then we sell our farm land to overseas interests!!!

*  In Asia.  On the contrary, much of the western world is trashing their middle class.

No argument about selling land to someone who wants to come here as a permanent resident, buy and operate a dairy farm, join the local volunteer fire brigade, send his kids to our schools and be part of the community.  Why, though, do we sell blocks of land to vertically integrated overseas companies that will take the profits overseas.  If they were bringing some vital technology here there might be some justification but to the contrary, In so many branches of agriculture and especially in dairy, we are the experts in the field.

The worst example of this is the recent sale of the Crafer farms.  These are a block of 10 or 12 dairy farms that the receivers peddled overseas.  They insisted on selling them as a block which pretty well eliminates individual Kiwi share milkers who want to become dairy farmers from purchasing them.  Instead they sold them to a Chinese dairy business.  Are we nuts!!!

The government has argued that this selling of our farms (and our houses) to overseas concerns does not raise the price.  The liquidators of the Crafer farms obviously thought otherwise.  If they thought they could have got more money by selling them individually to  local farmers they would have done so.  After all, they work on commission. 

Sat, June 3, 2017.  I just read in today's press that our major parking company in Christchurch is a Hong Kong company.  This is beyond a joke.

Energy Policy
I'm not going to type  all this again.  We show very little imagination or creativity.  Have a look at these links:

1.  The government, with very little expense, could make the uptake of solar electric much more financially feasible.  Panel prices are coming down and correct government action could set us well on the way to energy independence. Absolutely no subsidies needed.
Solar-electric-government-role

2.  Having solar panels is financially identical to having a pension  right now,  long before we retire.  There is a good argument for allowing access to our KiwiSaver to finance them
Kiwisaver-and-solar-panels

3.  Much nonsense has been talked about the unsuitability of renewable energy because of its intermittent nature.  This totally ignores such coming innovations such as demand balancing, electric cars, new types of batteries and smart grids. It further ignores the function of the grid to pass power from places with wind to places without and areas where the sun is shining to areas where it is not.
Excess-energy-what-to-do

4.  We mustn't fall into the German trap.  Their uptake of solar electric has been fantastic but there are fish hooks.  There is a better way.
Double-metering-its-insidious

5.  Same as "4"
German-fit-system-brilliant

6.  The steady replacement of our fossil fuel powered domestic fleet with Electrics has many benefits.  The function of government is to set the stage, not to actually do anything.  Again, no subsidies needed.
Legislation-for-electric-cars

7.  Wind farms are been shot down all over the country.  Some of the concerns may be justified, Most are pure nimbiism.  The government should sort out this mess.
Enabling-wind-farms

8.  Get real guys.  Wind energy is clean, competitive in price and highly compatible with our Hydro rich energy mix.  Let's get on with it.
Wind-energys-no-good


Our policy on Climate Change
We could be far more innovative here as well.  We must be completely selfish here and look after New Zealand.  We can't do anything of significance about world climate change ourselves.  If we stopped all our emissions of greenhouse gasses, it would have no effect on the world output.  We could:

a) set an example as we have often done in the past,
b) guard our clean green image,
c) future proof New Zealand against a likely collapse of the ecology and economy of our major trading partners and
d) reduce our financial obligation under Kyoto
global-warming-anthropogenic-or-not
forget-climate-change

Note that our lumber industry should get carbon credits, not a carbon charge.  The trees we grow are taking Carbon dioxide out of the air and because our forests are young and growing (not mature forests in which net CO2 uptake is zero) they take up a lot of carbon.  Very close to 50% of the dry weight of wood is carbon.  In-so-far as part of this wood is built into long lasting furniture and buildings it is a long term sequestration of  carbon.  Then instead of using the highly polluting lignite coal to manufacture urea, we could equally well be using all the wood waste.  This would bring more carbon credits to the lumbering industry and the ability to sell green urea.  We could even burn this wood in such a way to leave charcoal and enrich our soils, especially in the far north with it.
Urea from wood waste 
The value of Charcoal in the soil.



Carbon Tax
Our Cap and Trade policy to control our carbon emissions is designed to make the banks rich**, most of them not even Kiwi owned. Australia has just introduced a carbon tax system and the banks are lining up, rubbing their hands together vying for the business.   If much of the commentary is correct, Cap and Trade will not even be effective.   Jim Hansen has proposed a far better system called Tax and Dividend which has every chance of being effective and will protect the citizens of any country that adopts it, from the temporary increase in the price of just about everything which will be caused by switching to renewables.  Best of all, from the point of view of the political party that proposes it, it would be a real vote catcher.
Jim Hansen's climate change solution

Why are our political parties so reluctant to propose Hansen's Tax and Dividend instead of cap and trade.


**By the by, if we do insist on making the banks rich, with whatever carbon tax system we put in place or, for that matter, if we insist on the disastrous policy of selling our family silver,,,,, give both jobs to KiwiBank.  Are we really that intent on making Ausi banks rich.  Does someone (Everyone??) in government own shares in Ausi banks???  Give the job to KiwiBank who would then increase her capitalization and her ability to make loans and her revenues  would stay in New Zealand to the benefit of all. 



Our Agriculture
We could be producing green urea (sounds like an oxymoron, doesn't it?). Instead we are proposing to use our lignite which is the dirtiest form of coal.  Even worse, the company that is proposing to do this is an SOE for heaven sake!!!  A government company.  Note that Urea only contains the nutrient, Nitrogen but we could also be producing high quality whole (with all the nutrients) fertilizer for our farms at a very low cost.  We could also have truly green dairy farms. 
fertilizing-new-zealand-natural-way
wood-waste-and-urea
indoor-dairy-farms

Selling off our SOE's (state owned enterprises)
The government is now talking about selling off 49% of our State Owned Enterprises to make up for the money we are borrowing.   This is like a trucking company selling off it's trucks to make the end-of-year books look better. I have a "problem or two" with this.  It is unbelievable that she is selling off assets which are reported to return dividends of 20% (I don't believe this either) instead of borrowing money at 4%.

1) We, the citizens of New Zealand, already own these companies.  The SOE's are the property of every Kiwi.  They don't belong to the government except in the sense than every member of parliament owns just as much of them as every other Kiwi. Selling us our own SOE's is like stealing empty bottles from behind a convenience store and trying to sell them back to the owner.  (at the age of 9, I tried this, was caught and this was the end of my career in crime).  Where in the legislation does it allow these very temporary directors of Kiwi Inc. to sell off the family silver.

2).  All Kiwi's will have to pay more taxes because  of the reduced dividends coming in from these SOE's

3) Who will buy them.  Clearly Kiwi's who have some spare cash.  They will then get the dividends*.  The rich Kiwis who have bought shares will have some income to make up for the increased taxes.  Poor Kiwis will be simply out of pocket.  The bottom line.....  Money coming out of the pocket of poor Kiwis into the pockets of rich Kiwis. A typical  money-merry-go-round that we have, in the past, associated with America, not with New Zealand.

*incidentally, it is very clever on the part of government.  They sell us our own property, we get the dividends and then we pay tax at our marginal tax rate on these dividends.  The government gets a third of the dividend back even though they no longer own the shares.  Very cute.

4)  As soon as the buyers of these shares need money or when the shares have gained some value, they will sell them.  Who will buy them.  Who has lots of American dollars because of their low wages.  You guessed it.  And they don't necessarily buy up our SOE's directly.  There are front companies and front companies for front companies and......  you get the picture.  Same result.  We end up with 49% of our strategic assets owned overseas.  We end up being tenants in our own country.

5.  Apparently, shareholders which own 25% or more of a company have quite a few rights in controlling a company.  I am not familiar with the inns and outs of this situation but it would appear that owning 51% of a company does not give the control that is implied by the Key government.

KiwiSaver
And finally KiwiSaver.  It has the potential to be the most important innovation in our history (OK, that may be a little exaggerated --- but only a little).  KiwiSaver is Kiwis investing in their own economy, the dividends coming back to Kiwis to be spent in Kiwi businesses which pay taxes to the Kiwi government etc.    The benefits are far more extensive than sketched above. See:
KiwiSaver - Good for new Zealand

But it is a terrible investment....... and not to put too fine a point on it - a scam.  The poorness of the investment is obvious when you see the bribes that the government had to offer to get people to invest in it.  To provide these bribes, the government has to a)borrow more money,  b)lower services or  c)hike taxes.  The present government has done all three.  Sure, the present world economic situation has a lot to do with our economic woes but KiwiSaver bribes are a contributing factor.  Money is simply taken out of Kiwi Pockets in order to bribe other Kiwis to save.  Government debt is increased while private debt is decreased.  A zero sum game as far as our overall New Zealand debt is concerned.  No wonder our credit rating has gone down from AAA to AA.  It would be so easy to fix it.  (See the above link).  Simply stop all the government and employer contributions (another scam) and let us invest before taxes.  Go all the way and tax our real (above inflation) dividends rather than our nominal dividends.  This way KiwiSaver becomes a viable investment in its own right.

Why should the rules around KiwiSaver be different from the rules around other investments??(that is a retorical question).  Because we are asked to put a large proportion of our disposable income into an investment fund for all of our working life for the good of New Zealand.  This is not an investment such as we would make when we buy shares or a rental house and should not be treated the same way by the government.  It is not an investment that we can cash up when we decide to.  Surly we deserve a fair return on this sort of investment.  And imagine the money coming into the economy as Kiwis retire and have a decent pension fund.  Instead of being a burden, retiring Kiwis become a positive asset to the economy.

New Zealand is a great innovator.  We lead the world in so many ways but we could do so much more.


Monday, July 30, 2007

KiwiSaver - Good For New Zealand? Good for a Kiwi?

KiwiSaver has the potential to be the most significant positive development for our economy and for our well being that has ever being instituted in New Zealand. Unfortunately it is a highly flawed system. KiwiSaver could:::


* Increase business development in New Zealand as this newly available money is used for investment.

* Create worthwhile jobs (as opposed to the present low paid, menial jobs) for Kiwi's from both the construction and running of these businesses.

*Reduce inflation since there would be  less money chasing consumer goods. If you are saving you have less to spend.

* Facilitate a better exchange rate due to lower inflation leading to increased exports. Ideally, one wants a lower inflation rate than one's trading partners to take advantage of the lag factor. (economic hysteresis)

* Reduce prices at the store for the average Kiwi due to competition**. With less money chasing goods, competition between retailers increases. This results in lower prices for the consumer. This helps to make up for the fact that we will have less money to spend when more of our income goes into savings.

     ** this effect was clearly demonstrated worldwide following the 2008 economic downturn as consumers opted to pay down debt rather than to buy-buy-buy.  Despite huge "Quantitative Easing" prices did not increase.

* Reduce the need for the reserve bank to hike interest rates to keep inflation under control since saving lowers inflation automatically. In fact, when increased saving has lowered inflation, the reserve bank should be able to reduce the base lending rate. Since interest is a business expense, lower interest rates increases profits. Lower interest rates will also discourage the "carry trade" in which "mom and pop" from overseas, largely from Japan,  speculate in our currency. Our own savings will replace money from the Carry Trade. The Carry Trade bubble also contributes to inflation as it forces the reserve bank to raise the base interest rate. Instead of the interest on investment going overseas, it will stay in New Zealand.

* Stimulate rather than choke business. The hiking of the base interest rate by the Reserve Bank chokes business by increasing this business expense whereas saving/investment powers business by providing less expensive credit.
Credit is less expensive due to this fund of KiwiSaving money being available for loaning. Simple supply and demand kicks in when lending institutions have an excess of liquidity. Money held in their vaults does them no good. They must reduce interest rates to get this money moving and working for them so all borrowers benefit.

* Make businesses more profitable, especially export businesses, since, with lower interest rates, it costs them less to service their loans. More profit leads to higher wages and/or more investment back into their business, further strengthening our economy.

Note
We shouldn't be too hard on over-seas people who are investing in our economy. We aren't saving enough for the banks to have enough cash to lend us for our mortgages and business loans. Without this investment from overseas we would be in a difficult situation. For some reason it is worthwhile for them to invest in our economy but not worthwhile for us to do so???  This is probably due to the way the two groups (domestic and overseas investors) are taxed but I still find it a mystery. The result, though, is that the profit (interest) from our loans is flowing overseas rather than staying in New Zealand to power other enterprises. Hopefully, with some further improvements for the investor in KiwiSaver, it will become worthwhile for us to invest in our own economy and stop this financial hemorrhage. If we hypothesize a 10% leak from our economy, this means that every profit dollar that stays in New Zealand is exchanged 10 times, lubricating our business engine. Profits that go overseas are oil taken out of the motor.

* Provide a more stable and hence more attractive environment for business, possibly tipping the balance toward New Zealand for some businesses which are contemplating relocating overseas. Also the possibility of encouraging outside businesses to relocate to New Zealand. More businesses means lower unemployment figures and more competition between businesses for employees which translates into higher wages.  This, of course, flies in the face of what certain governments try to do.  Namely to keep wages down for the benefit of their business friends and their share portfolio.  It also results in more taxes into the government coffers and hence less overseas borrowing.  Less overseas borrowing raises our credit rating and makes those loans we still have to take, less expensive.

House affordability 


More money going into kiwisaver would ease the purchase of a house for Kiwis:

 *  (1) because of mortgages with lower-interest rates  This is caused by lending institutions having more money (supply and demand again) and because of the competition between the lending institutions to lend this money. This will allow more people to purchase their own homes.

*  (2) due to lower house prices  With a safe, worthwhile alternative investment through KiwiSaver, less people will be speculating on housing**. High house prices are a bubble, just as the currency speculation is a bubble and is powered by perception rather than intrinsic worth. All bubbles contribute to general inflation. Without the housing bubble, not only would houses be more affordable but so would bread and milk at the corner dairy.  Many house investors would probably be willing to take a somewhat lower return in KiwiSaver than they expect in housing speculation.  If you have ever owned a rental property, you know what a hassle it can be.

     **Some years ago when we looked for a house in Christchurch, nine out of ten houses we were shown were empty.  When you are selling the family home you generally have to sell it before you move out.  These were speculation houses.  Imagine the effect on house prices$$  of all of these spec-houses flooding back on to the market when there is a viable alternative investment.

$$This may explain why it is not being done.  How many MP's own speculation/rental houses and don't want to see the price of housing come down. For that matter, how many MP's don't want their family house to loose value.

*  (3). because of more money in peoples hands When people go to buy a house they will have a larger down payment in their hands from KiwiSaver, still further easing the purchase of a home. (The government has suggested that it will be possible to access KiwiSaver funds to purchase the first house and hence, a larger down payment resulting in a lower monthly mortgage payment to Australian banks).

*  (4)  due to increased wages  Investment in one's country increases per-capita productivity as money goes into the means of production (machinery, infra structure). As long as wage increases do not exceed increases in per-capita productivity, they are not inflationary. With a higher real wage (as opposed to a higher nominal wage that inflation quickly neutralizes), it is easier to buy a house.

back to general benefits

* Put more money in peoples hands at retirement with all the benefits this brings. Although this is the major reason given for KiwiSaver, it is actually a relatively minor benefit compared to all the other benefits which will come from all of us investing in our own economy.  With money in their hands, retired people become a positive asset to an economy rather than a drain as they seem to be considered at present. Retired couples tend to spend the money they have.  There is not much incentive for them to continue saving.

* Reduce the need for investment from overseas since we have our own increased source of investment. Overseas investment results in profit being sent overseas where it is lost to the New Zealand economy. Profit earned in New Zealand supports our home grown businesses at many levels as we spend our money locally.

* Reduce the debt owed by Kiwi's. Instead of buying something on credit, incurring interest and paying it back over time, people will save, get interest and then buy. High debt is going to land a lot of us in trouble. This depends on easier access to our KiwiSaver funds*, something that the government is against at this juncture and so we may not see this benefit. It also depends on KiwiSaver being a worthwhile system of investment so people will invest in it. Certain purchases such as an electric car, house insulation, solar panels etc are, in effect, a pension which starts at the date of purchase, not at age 65. Serious consideration should be given to allowing KiwiSaver funds to be used for these as well as the purchase of a first house.

* Help avoid the 'crunch'%%  which is coming due to us regularly spending 10% more than we earn. If this continues, it will eventually lead to a precipitous fall in our exchange rate as outside investors loose faith in the worth of our currency. Such economic earthquakes are as bad for everyone as is our present over-inflated currency. The longer this excess spending goes on, the greater will be the size of the inevitable correction. Our objective should be to induce overseas investors to gradually get out of our currency as we fill the gap rather than to have them suddenly pull the plug.

%% Note (Oct 2011) We have just been downgraded from AAA to AA.  Is this the beginning of "the crunch"

Up to this point the tacit assumption has been that all the money collected under the umbrella of KiwiSaver will be invested in New Zealand businesses. This is of course unrealistic. However, investing overseas is not all bad. True, we are investing in the businesses of our competitors but on the other hand, we are bringing their profits into New Zealand where they can help with our balance of payments.

So those are the potential benefits. Now,,, what is wrong with KiwiSaver as it stands.
 

The Employer Contribution
The employer contribution is the most cynical part of the kiwisaver con trick and like all con tricks it depends on the 'mark' thinking he is getting something for nothing. The employee looks at the system and believes he will be getting an increase in salary of 4%. Sure, he doesn't get to spend it but it will be waiting for him when he retires. Nonsense!

It is true that for the first year or two of the scheme, the employee will be getting a real benefit. He is on a negotiated salary and the employer will be adding money for KiwiSaver. Also, someone on the minimum wage will be getting a benefit since he must still get this minimum wage in hand.* Incidentally, most of this money is coming out of the employee's pocket anyway through taxes since the government is subsidizing the employer so that he can pay this extra. Even worse, it is coming out of the pockets of all tax payers and is going into the pockets of people who join KiwiSaver. However, leaving that aside, these first couple of years are irrelevant. What do you think will happen as inflation continues on its 3% per year course. What will happen when he changes jobs.

*just watch employers try to deduct money from the minimum wage to put into KiwSaver.  

In both these instances, the employer will calculate what he can afford for the great privilege of having you work for him. He will then deduct what he has to, to pay for KiwiSaver and offer what is left as a salary. If the employee stays in his present job, his salary will not increase as much as he would otherwise have expected and if he changes jobs, he won't be offered as much as he would have expected.

The employee, on the other hand will unwittingly be complicit in this fiction. He will look at his salary and say, OK it isn't what I was expecting but on the other hand, my employer is putting in X amount into KiwiSaver which will benefit me when I retire. Wake up. He is not putting in anything. He has simply offered a reduced salary so that he can afford to put his contribution into KiwiSaver.  You are in a forced saving plan that you can't access until you retire.

The Government Contribution 
The government contribution is also a fiction.  It is your tax money being given back to you after administration costs.  To do this, the government must take more money from you, from, for instance, increased GST*, or reduce services or  putt your children deeper into debt.  The present government is doing all three.

*(oct 2011) Since writing this blog, GST has gone from 12.5% to 15%.  Any bets when it will be increased again.


                             Fixing KiwiSaver
KiwiSaver as it stands is a very poor investment. One indication of this is that the government has had to bribe people with the various incentives to get them to enter the system. Whenever someone is giving you something for nothing, suspect a con trick. KiwiSaver is a case in point. So what is wrong with KiwiSaver for the investor.

There are two problems with KiwiSaver**. First, if you are a middle income earner on a marginal income tax bracket of 33%#, you have to earn $150 in order to invest $100. Secondly, when you earn a dividend or interest of $100 through KiwiSaver, you only get to keep $66. If you work through a calculation assuming you can get a 6% investment through KiwiSaver and that inflation over your life time is 3%, you will find that it takes just over 40 years before the first money you invested at, say, age 20 is back to the buying power of what you originally earned.**

 You are already close to retirement. Money invested later in life never does get back up to its original buying power. Its not as if no other country has got it right. Australia, the UK and the USA all have systems that allow the investor to invest before taxes (in the case of Australia you are taxed 15% on investment and dividends regardless of your tax bracket) and to keep what he earns through his pension plan investment.

 The whole problem with KiwiSaver is the tax regime imposed on it by the government and the bribes they provide, are a sure indication that they realize what a poor investment it is. When people wake up to what a poor investment KiwiSaver is, they will be opting-out and the huge benefits to New Zealand listed at the beginning of this blog will not occur.##

# Earning more than $70,000 as of 2014

##This is a quote from Wikipedia describing the Australian system
These taxes contribute over $6 billion in annual government revenue.[8] Superannuation is a tax-advantaged method of saving as the 15% tax rate on contributions is lower than the rate an employee would have paid if they received the money as income. The Federal government announced in its 2006/07 budget that from 1 July 2007, Australians over the age of 60 will face no taxes on withdrawing monies out of their superannuation fund if it is from a taxed source.


**The calculation
You earn $150. You are taxed before investment so you can only invest $100 for every $150 you earn. You put this money into a fixed interest investment in the bank (who would trust stocks and shares or a Kiwi investment company after the recent econo-quake). You earn 6%. At the end of the year, the tax man looks at your investment as sees that you have earned $6. You are in the 33% tax bracket so he takes $2. Remember that this money is on top of your other earnings so you are taxed on it at your marginal rate. Since inflation is 3%, you need $103 just to break even and you have $104 after taxes.  You have earned $1 in real profit. Taking this $1 back to when you invested it, your true earning is actually 97 cents but let's not quibble. If you plug this in to the compound interest formula (log 1.5/log 1.0097) you find that it will take 42 years to get back to your original buying power.  Let Kiwis invest before taxes and you are investing the whole $150 and are 42 years ahead of the game even without stopping taxes on your dividends.

Make KiwiSaver into a worthwhile investment and all the benefits will accrue to the economy as listed above.  Better still, us Kiwis will be the owners of our own economy.  We continue to sell off our assets** to keep our heads above water.  It is like a trucking company selling off its trucks to pay its debts.  Not sustainable.

** (Oct 2011)  Now the National government is talking about selling off 49% of our SOEs to us who already own them.  We will sell them off to overseas investors when the price is right or when we need the money and the dividends will go overseas.  Taxes will rise to make up for the loss of income.  Who is benefiting from all this.  Rich Kiwis, while they retain the shares, will have some dividends to make up for higher taxes.  Poor Kiwis not.  Once again money coming out of the pockets of poor Kiwis into the pockets of the rich***. 

*** The government has another cute little wrinkle in this story.  Even rich Kiwis have to pay taxes (well sometimes anyway).  The dividends they receive are taxes at their marginal rate.  Even though the government no longer owns the shares, they get about a third of the dividend anyway as long as these shares are in the hands of kiwis.  Very neat!!!!

ps(Oct 2011) A new wrinkle just came to my attention.  We have just had our economic rating reduced from AAA to AA.  The reason stated was that our national debt is too large.  This despite the fact that following the mini economic quake in 2008, Kiwis started to save in KiwiSaver.  The reason:  The government subsidies to KiwiSaver put the government further into debt so our total national debt which is made up of government debt and personal debt is not decreasing.  Solution:  Stop subsidizing KiwiSaver and simply make it  a worthwhile investment as outlined above.

How to structure Kiwi Saver
1)  Allow investment before taxes
2)  Don't tax the interest or dividends you earn.  KiwiSaver is not like other investments such as housing or shares where you have the option to go in and out of the investment when you want for profit taking.  You are asked to make an investment for your entire working life.  Therefore KiwiSaver investments should not have the same rules that apply to other investments.








Saturday, June 30, 2007

KiwiSaver - not that hot

KiwiSaver - not that hot.

The spin the government is putting on KiwiSaver, suggesting that the employer will contribute to the employees savings is really a nonsense. Sure it will happen for the first year or so and especially with the government helping the employer make the contributions. However, as inflation continues and new salary negotiations come up, the only way an employer will be able to put money into your KiwiSaver is to pay you less. In effect, he will have a quiet talk with you and say this is the amount I can put out for your wages. If you want it all in hand (and pay taxes on the whole package), fine. If you want me to hold back the appropriate amount and put it into KiwiSaver, (without you paying tax on that part) that is fine too. In effect, you will be putting in both your portion and the employers portion and the government will contribute $20. The advantage here is that the portion you give back to your employer is contributed before taxes while the portion you put in is after taxes. Looked at another way, you reduce your taxable income by giving some back to the employer to put in to KiwiSaver for your retirement.


The real problem with KiwiSaver is the way it is taxed. You pay taxes on the money you contribute and you pay taxes on the interest you earn, all at your marginal tax rate. Take and example. Lets look at $100 invested in KiwiSaver over a year. Assume for the example you earn 6%, that inflation is running at 3% and you are in the 33% tax bracket. You may think that 6% is pretty low but ignoring our present interest rates which are caused by a couple of bubbles and the reserve bank continually hiking up the base interest rate, 6% is a far more reasonable expectation in the long run.

After a year, the $100 has grown to $106. Since your earnings are $6, the government takes $2. (I'm assuming you are in the 33% tax bracket but even if you are in the 39% tax bracket, the government has said that they will reduce the percent you pay on KiwiSaver investments to 33%. Big deal!!!) Note here that they are taxing a loss you made because of inflation, which, to an extent, they control. Because of inflation you had to make $103 just to break even so you have a real earning of $1 on a $100 investment. Lets get really picky and index the $1 back to when you made the investment. $1 today will buy what $0.97 would buy when you made the investment. Your true earning rate is 97 cents on a hundred dollar investment or 0.97%. Lets take a concrete example and check how well the first investment made by a typical punter looks at retirement. Lets look at a person on $60,000 a year who invests at 20 and takes his money at 65. We will assume inflation stays at 3% for these 45 years and he earns 6% annually. Remember, the $60,000 is his gross negotiated salary.

He gives back to the boss $2,307.60 leaving him with a taxable income of $57,692.40. His weekly salary is $1,109.47. He puts 4% 0f this into KiwiSaver and the boss puts in the same or $44.38 each. The government puts in $20. From that first week he has $108.76. in his KiwiSaver account. How much did this cost him. Well it cost him the $44.38 he gave back to the boss to invest for him and since he is in the 33% tax bracket, his $44.38 cost him $66.57 or a total of $110.94. The $20 contribution from the government almost made up for the taxes he paid on his portion of his investment.We have already seen that because of tax combined with inflation, his true annual rate of return is 0.97%. Compounding that for the 45 years from 20 to 65 we get an increase factor of 1.544. His first investment made at 20 will be worth $167.93. Since his initial cost was $110.94, he has earned 51% on the investment from his first week. Not a very impressive return for a lifetime of investment.

You may question the fact that I maintain that the true cost of his $44.38 is $66.57. After all you don't see this money anyway and you think of your salary as the amount you take home and not the amount you earn. I do this because it is the government which decides the rules and it doesn't have to be done this way. The Australian government, for instance, charges 15% on money you invest and 15% on your earnings regardless of your tax bracket. The American government (as far as I can determine from their web site) charges nothing for both investment and interest. Run these parameters through your pocket calculator and you will soon realise just how much better their system is. The government doesn't have to give us bribes as they are doing at present. It simply has to stop the prohibitive taxation.

If you want to see who will do well on KiwiSaver, run the above calculations through for someone in the 19.5% tax bracket and specifically for someone earning a gross negotiated salary of $520 per year ($500 before taxes). Because he is only paying a fifth on the money he turns back to his employer and a fifth on his earnings, he does much better out of KiwiSaver than the higher earner. Of course, he may not be able to put that money aside when he is on such a small income but by running his example through, you get an indication of where the problem is. Namely, the way the government taxes our contributions and our earnings.

You may have noticed I have ignored the $1000 the government is putting in at the beginning. It actually doesn't make all that much difference in the long run. Factor it in if you want and see what sort of investment you come out with.