America Going Under

If you needed to be convinced that Democracy in America is completely dysfunctional; that big corporations take precedent over the citizens, this ban on the purchase of seeds in many parts of America should convince you.

Here in New Zealand, when it was announced that we were heading into a level 4 shutdown to combat C19, all the seeds in our outlets were snapped up as people realized that they might just have to grow their own food if this pandemic continued for any length of time.  Did New Zealand declare seeds and gardening equipment non essential.  Of course not.  We have a functioning democracy.  America has an Oligarchy.

This is clearly an attempt by the big corporations through their influence on politicians to grab even more of the seed production market of America and to promote their GM and Round Up Ready seeds, many of them with a lethal gene that means that you can not save seeds.  And if that is not enough, they, in the past have taken legal action against people who have tried to save GM seeds that don't have the lethal gene.

All sorts of vested interests gain by this ban while the citizens suffer as food becomes scarce and expensive. Meat packing has also been declared non essential (unlike here in New Zealand where we are very close to eradicating C19)

Twice now, America has been given the chance to have the best president since FDR, once in 2016 and again in 2020.  He would have actually drained the swamp.  Now, regardless of who wins, they will have either a psychopathic lair or a bumbling yes man who will do what he is told. This stupidity would never have happened in a Sanders presidency.

In case you think that the GOP is the villain, well yes she is but that is what we would expect of a party of the rich and the corporations.  No surprise there.  But hopefully, America is waking up to the fact that the DNC is no better.  In fact they are worse because they give lip service to being the party of the people.

There was another small but very revealing incident fairly recently that illustrates the dysfunction of the American system.  You might remember that a free press is an important part of a democracy. (I apologize for the sarcasm).  And part of a free press is a free broadcasting system.  Radio and Television are as much part of the press as news papers and magazines.

Do you remember in 2003 one of the Dixy Chicks insulted President bush (the younger).  In the spirit of Woodstock, of course this brought them to the attention of every DJ in the country and their music was played more and more.  Great songs like the Vietnam blues.  Sing it with me.

Well it's one two three what are we fighting for
Don't ask me I don't give a dam
Next stop it's Vietnam
And it's five, six seven open up the pearly gates
Oh Lord it ain't no use in wondering why
Wopee we're all going to die.

I wish.  Not a bit of it.  The were banned across the USA and it nearly derailed their  career.  Clearly the word came down from above from the corporate bosses who are beholden to the system for their largess from the government.  What happened.  Did the government threaten them with a withholding of funds or was it just the old boys club.  Whatever the mechanism, this illustrates how much freedom of the press exists in the US of A.


 Of course the most egregious, most damaging example of a lack of press freedom in America was the almost complete shut out of Bernie Sanders from the news.  Finally America had the possibility of having the best president since FDR.  Instead they got the worse one since Bush, the younger.  America had a second chance in 2020 and she blew it again.

Let me give you one more. I know someone who worked for a major American news outlet.  He/she was not allowed to write what he/she had investigated. This reporter was told that only articles which were favorable to Trump would be published (this was early in his presidency).  This reporter quit.

Why test for Covid19 antibodies

At present we are testing for the Covid-19 virus.  Swabs of the upper respiratory track are taken and a test is done which involves multiplying up the RNA in the sample.  There are many false negatives since the virus tends to reside deeper down in the lungs so you may have the virus without it being detected.  If the virus is detected, you and your contacts can be isolated, reducing the chance of transmission to others.  But that is another story.

Here I want to examine the implications of testing for the antibodies to Covid-19.  These are the substances that the body creates to neutralize any further incursions of the virus into your body.  In other words, you are immune to at least this strain of C19 and possibly have some partial immunity to other closely related strains which may be produced by mutation of the virus.  The tests for the Antibodies are being rolled out and hopefully they will soon be widespread and affordable.  At present it is not known how long immunity will last in people who have contracted the disease.  Contracting some diseases give you immunity for life, some for a lesser period.

So what is the value of being able to test for antibodies for this disease.  In no particular order:

1.  We will now be able to get a good estimate of how many people have had the virus but were a-symptomatic.  Some present estimates are 4 to 5 a-symptomatic people for every one who gets sick.  This will allow us to determine:
  a) The true death rate from this disease
  b) Why some people are a-symptomatic.  Is it genetic, related to gut bacteria, connected with age, race, previous or present  disease profile and so forth.
  c) What the true rate of immunity in in the population.
  d) At what rate of immunity does herd immunity become effective.
  e) Who to give the vaccine to when it is available.  No use wasting it on people who have had the disease (symptomatically or a-symptomatically) and hence are already immune to it.

2.  Which people can now go back to work, look after people with the disease, be out and about rather than in lock down, shop in the super markets and so forth with no danger to themselves or to others.  Here I would make a suggestion.
     Give anyone who has tested positive for antibodies a photo ID card that they can show to the police or 'to whom it may concern' stating that they are immune.
These people can still transmit the disease just as any surface can but they are not factories spewing out massive numbers of viruses into their environment.  They can start to get us up and running as early as possible.  Even before the test for antibodies becomes readily available, people that have had the disease and are not OK can be issued such a photo ID card.


3.  When a vaccine is rolled out, over time we will be able to see the relative effectiveness of having had the vaccine or having had the disease. For some diseases a better, longer lasting immunity comes from having had the disease.


Sadly the countries that have been slackest in controlling  the spread of the virus will be the countries that can get up and running first.  They will develop herd immunity earlier and the virus will die out in their countries.  On the negative side, the cost of their poor response to the virus will be the death of many of their citizens who didn't have to die.

Cheap Tree Planting

We are all a flutter these days over planting trees to take up carbon dioxide from the air.  Great.  It is not the whole solution but nothing is.  Planting trees is one useful arrow in our quiver.

However, don't produce seedlings for planting.  Simply Truncheon.  Most Deciduous trees in the Northern Hemisphere truncheon beautifully* and it is orders of magnitude cheaper than using seedling.

*Very possibly an adaptation to eons of living with beavers.

Of course if you are the politician who is making the decisions and a nursery company is financing your election campaigns, you will probably go for seedlings.  Likewise if your brother in law runs a nursery.  But,,,,If you truly want the maximum bang for the taxpayers buck, go for Truncheoning

So how do you Truncheon.

First, you truncheon in the wet season or at least when there is a reasonable amount of moisture in the soil where you want to establish a grove, riparian zone or forest.

Given a choice, spring is best when the sap is rising and there is a whole summer ahead for good growth.

Decide which tree you want to plant; say a willow.  Cut  down a willow tree at about waist height.  You want it to coppice (grow out from the stump you have left) since it will  be a source for more truncheons in the future.

Cut the whole tree into forearm length pieces from the trunk to the smallest branches.  Pile the pieces into your pick up truck, cover with some wet sacks and head to the area you want to plant.

You will need a sledge hammer, a straight steel bar about a meter and a half long, sharpened at one end, a sharp axe or hatchet and a sharp knife.  You might want to take along a balk of wood to use as a chopping block.when you are sharpening the bottom of the larger pieces with your axe.  Optional is a can of PVC paint that you have lying around from your latest DIY project.

When you get to the site, put out your chopping block and start to sharpen the lower end of all the large pieces with your axe.  Use your knife or axe to strip one thin strip of bark from one side of the truncheon along the lower third of the truncheon.  Where this is in contact with the soil, roots will form.

Your friends who have come along for the experience can pound these pieces into the ground.  If the ground is unyielding, drive the steel bar repeatedly into the same hole. rotating it around to open up the hole and facilitate pulling the bar out of the hole.  Then pound  the truncheon into the hole.

For the smaller fore arm length pieces, no need to sharpen them.  Just strip a thin strip of bark from the lower third of the truncheon.  Drive the Steel bar into the ground until you have made a hole as deep as a third of your thinner truncheons and drop in the truncheon.  Heel it in.

Presto chango, you have created a grove of trees.  You may have to protect them if you have deer or rabbits in the area but you have local knowledge and will know of any special problems in your neck of the woods.  Here in New Zealand where rabbits are a serious problem, they put little plastic shields about 40cm high around each grape vine they plant.

Oh, and if you want, you can paint the  top of any  truncheons that have a cut top with the PVC paint.  This reduces evaporation and may help the growth of the truncheon in dryer areas.  Paint half and leave half and see if there is any difference.  It is worthwhile applying a couple of coats of paint.

Democrats throwing Presidential Election

That is the question.  Are the Democrats knowingly throwing the coming presidential election. How bloody ridiculous, you say.  Why would any political party throw the presidential election on purpose.  Why indeed!

Let's look first at another item in our recent past.  Before the great depression of the 30's, the economy cycled between boom and bust about every 11 years.  The great depression was so severe that FDR (Franklin Delanor Roosevelt) was able to put in measures such as  Glass Steagall, that stopped the banks gambling with our money.  This stoped the boom and bust cycle for about 50 years until the banks came to the government and pleaded to have the regulations relaxed.  Their argument.  "Why would we do anything to wreck our businesses.  It is perfectly safe for you to remove the regulations" and the government fell for it. Later, after the 2008 crash, Obama succeeded in getting Dodd-Frank passed which returned some small measure of sanity into banking.

Actually, I don't think they fell for it.  I think they knew what would happen but were probably getting financial support for their elections from the banks and who knows what other 'perks'.

Now with this Covid19 crash, the banks are once more going to get a big bail out.  It would be far better to give it only to the people who would spend it just to keep their heads above water and thus feed it that way to the banks.  What will banks and other big businesses do with the money.  I bet they will buy back their shares at bargain basement prices so that they have less dividends to pay in the future and more money to give each other as bonuses.

So you have to ask yourself, why in the lead up to 2008 did the banks bundle up junk mortgages and sell them at a premium as if they were double A, knowing perfectly well that they were endangering the whole economic structure.  The answer is commissions.  With every transaction, the bank earns some money and part of that money goes to the employee who did the transaction.  Individual bankers could care less about the viability of their business as long as they can accumulate their commissions; as long as they can feather their nests. The viability of their companies is far down their list of priorities.

We come now to the question at hand.  Why would the Democrats knowingly throw the presidential election by choosing an incompetent man who is clearly 'loosing it' like Joe Biden*.  To answer that question it is instructive to paraphrase a comment by that great highly articulate politician, Sarah Palin.  I can still remember the one sensible comment she made in her career.  To paraphrase, she said, How come congressmen and senators who come into office with modest means, leave office rich.

 

*Three years later

That so called Senile old man has proven to be about the most effective president since FDR.  What a totally unexpected surprise.  And when he talks he reminds me of Will Rogers.  Subtle, understated and like a rapier.  Go figure.  Has he just chosen a plethora of great advisors or is he some sort of genius.  We should look in the old folks homes for our politicians if this is an example of what to expect. 

It certainly is not due to their salaries, which are quite adequate but not enough to make them rich.  Clearly there are various 'benefits' to be had if you are on the inside.

Do you see a parallel with the bankers.

So to answer the question, it is not so much that they want to throw the election.  The truth, though,  is that they would much rather throw the election and leave Trump in office so that the various systems that allow them to feather their nest remain, than to have Bernie in office.  They know for a dead certainty that Bernie will whittle away at the corrupt practices in government and that this will make it harder and harder for them to enrich themselves.

They would be quite happy if Joe was elected.  The Democrats are becoming more and more like Republicans.  In fact you could argue that they are outdoing the republicans in UN-democratic practices.  The Republicans always choose puppets for their presidential candidates who will do what they are told but who have zilch minds of their own.  The last thing they want is a leader that will look after the people rather than the insiders. The last thing they want is an honest president in the White House.  They need someone that will play the game. Look at those great presidents, Bush and Regan.  WTF.  If Joe is in office* the whole system will remain just as favorable for the insiders as it is today and sod the people.

*Three years later

OK, I admit it.  Biden has done more for the American people than any president I can remember.  

So what is the final answer to the question.

No the Democrats don't want to throw the presidential election but they would much rather loose than allow Bernie anywhere near the leavers of power.  Bernie would  drain the swamp as Trump promised to do with no intention of carrying through. 

Covid19 unexpected results

As this pandemic spreads through the world there will be some somewhat contrary, unexpected consequences.  Once a vaccine is developed and widely available, the whole situation changes but just now we see a situation in which some countries, notably, New Zealand, have put measures in place that may well stop the virus in it's tracks while others, notably Italy, have not.  In Italy, the virus has got away from them.

You may remember reports on a previous pandemic.  I refer to the black death in Europe.  Before it killed massive numbers of the population, the serfs were completely under the thumb of their feudal lords.  They had no where else to go.  Following the multiple waves of this disease through the population, the remaining serfs could sell their labor to the highest bidder and it was the beginning of the end for feudalism and the beginning of the rise of the 'common man'.

So what can we expect in countries like Italy where the virus has got away from them  First there will be a lot of death, skewed heavily toward the elderly and to people with existing medical conditions, and especially, but not confined to people with respiratory problems.  So what will this do to the health service.  Initially it will be overwhelmed.  There will never be enough beds or equipment to take care of the huge pulse of sick people and many will die.  Those that survive will most likely be immune to this virus and likely for a considerable time, perhaps for the rest of their life.  They will likely also have some degree of cross immunity for any mutations of this same virus.  Two results seem obvious.

First you are creating a large number of people rather rapidly who can go back to work, can take care of sick family members and can even work in isolation facilities with no danger to themselves or to others*.  There will be a lot of deaths, although not at any where near the rate of the black death and mainly among the elderly and otherwise medically compromised people.  This brings us to the second consequence

*It would be useful to issue a plastic card like a credit card or drivers license to people who have tested positive for antibodies and negative for the virus.  In other words, people who are now immune to the virus. They can be allowed to circulate and associate with the healthy and the sick with no danger to themselves or to others.

At the end of the spread of the disease, the government will have decreased health and pension costs.  Many sick people who needed more care than members of the general public are gone as are many pensioners.  It is a hard reality that the exchequer will be in better shape.  And this brings us to the third consequence.

Countries that reacted poorly to the virus and didn't stop it spreading will recover far more quickly than countries that stopped it in it's tracks.  Their businesses and especially tourist businesses and others in which the workers come in contact with large numbers of people can be up and running very quickly Of course all this changes when an effective vaccine is widely available.  With an effective vaccine the whole country can rapidly return to business as usual.  This brings us to the fourth consequence.

A country which has been slack in it's treatment of the disease will start to develop herd immunity which will slow down the further spread of the disease. A country that has stopped the spread of the virus will be vulnerable to new explosions of the virus until a vaccine is available and widely rolled out.

In addition, with all the death, not all of it confined to the sick and elderly, there will be upward mobility for the survivors.  The whole dynamics in businesses, governments and other organizations may change, sometimes for the better as some dead wood is got rid of and sometime for the worse as critical people die.

But, in all this, what is a government to do.  It can't present the above scenario to the people and say as a country we will be better off if we simply let the disease take it's course but a lot of you will die.  No government could, in good conscience do such a thing .  And besides, once a vaccine is readily available, the whole situation changes --- Until the next pandemic appears.

And, the more we can slow down the spread of the virus, the less people will be sick at any one time.  This is what they mean when they talk about flattening the curve.  This means that it will be possible to care for the sick more intensively and  save lives.

But, sadly, it is still very likely that countries that have allowed the virus to spread will be up and running sooner than countries that have looked after their citizens.